MODELING THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON MALARIA PREVALENCE

O. O. Solanke; A. I. Taiwo; O. Oyewole

O. O. Solanke Department of Mathematical Sciences, Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye
A. I. Taiwo Department of Mathematical Sciences, Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye
O. Oyewole Department of Physical Sciences, Bells University of Technology, Ota

Keywords: Malaria, Incidence Rate, Ibadan City, Climatic variability, Trigonometric regression

Abstract

Malaria is believed to be one of the deadly killers of humans worldwide and a threatto one-third of the world’s population. Based on this assertion, this study is used to determine the effect of Ibadan climatic variability on Ibadan malaria prevalence proportion since the city has a holoendemic malaria transmission. Multiple Trigonometric regression model was used to determine the effects of rainfall and temperature on Ibadan malaria prevalence since it can be used to model series that exhibit two or more types of variations simultaneously. From the results, the residuals of the fitted multiple trigonometric regression model are not serially correlated based on the value of the Durbin Watson Statistics. The coefficients of the fitted model were used to establish that for every unit increase or decrease in Ibadan city rainfall and temperature, there might be an increase or decrease in the malaria prevalence proportion over the years. The values of coefficient of determination revealed that Ibadan city monthly rainfall and temperature jointly explained the variations in Ibadan malaria prevalence proportion up to 61%. The fitted multiple trigonometric regression model as well as a good fit and high predictive power based on the value of the adjusted coefficient of determination Based on these results Multiple trigonometric regression model is suitable and adequate for modelling the effect of Ibadan monthly climatic variability on malaria prevalence proportion which can cause a high rate of morbidity and mortality if not curtailed or curbed.