Estimation of Municipal Solid Waste Generation Trends From Selected Dumpsite in Ibadan from 2018-2024

Abstract

Municipal solid waste (MSW) generation encompasses residential, commercial, institutional, construction, demolition, and sanitation waste streams. This study quantified, characterized, and estimated waste generated at four selected dumpsites in Ibadan, namely Awotan, Lapite, Ajakanga, and Aba Eku, between 2018 and 2024. Annual waste quantities were estimated by projecting Ibadan's population with an exponential growth model and applying a per capita generation rate of 0.55 kg per person per day, after which a 70 percent collection efficiency was used to derive the collected fraction. The collected waste was then distributed across the four sites according to the operative policy allocation ratios for each period, while composition was characterized by applying percentage fractions for each waste category drawn from field and literature sources, and all estimates were validated against Oyo State Waste Management Authority records. On this basis, total waste generated and deposited across all sites was estimated at 10.8 million tonnes, with an average annual input of 1.54 million tonnes. Awotan received the highest annual average (420,000 tonnes), followed by Lapite (380,000 tonnes), Ajakanga (310,000 tonnes), and Aba Eku (210,000 tonnes). Organic matter dominated the waste composition (59%), followed by plastics (10%), paper (9%), textiles (6%), metals (5%), glass (4%), rubber (3%), and others (4%). The 2020 Oyo State waste management policy shift significantly altered the distribution of waste across sites. The Oyo State Government is recommended to institute mandatory waste segregation into organic, recyclable, and inert categories to reduce CO and PM?? emissions from open burning.